A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
